空间关联下中国地方政府债务的经济增长效应研究

A Study on the Economic Growth Effect of Local Government Debt in China Based on Spatial Correlation

当前对于政府债务的经济增长效应研究基本上忽视了空间关联性这一因素,尤其是以中国省份或县市为样本的研究,不考虑地区经济增长和地方政府债务在空间上的关联性,可能会使其相关结论出现偏差。通过搜集整理中国30个省份的地方债务数据,并基于空间计量模型对地方政府债务的经济增长效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,考虑到经济增长的空间关联性之后,中国地方政府债务对于经济增长仍是具有促进作用的,但是其空间溢出效应不明显,这一基本结论也为中国地方债务相关政策的制定提供了一定的启示。

Spatial correlation is often neglected by current researches on the economic growth effect of government debt, especially in researches with provinces and cities of China as subjects. It is possible that relative conclusions may be deviated due to the neglect of the spatial correlation between regional economic growth and local government debt. By collecting the data of local government debt in more than 30 provinces, an empirical analysis is made on the economic growth effect of local government debt based on spatial econometrics. Results show that by taking the spatial correlation of economic growth into consideration, China＇ s local government debt still promotes economic growth, but the spatial spillover effect is insignificant. The basic conclusion is valuable for making policy on China＇ s local debt.