中国对美国出口持续时间及决定因素研究

Research on the Duration of Export from China to the U. S. and Its Determinants

采用1998～2014年HS6位数的产品编码数据,考察中国对美国制造业产品出口贸易关系的持续时间,分析结果表明：中国对美国制造业产品出口贸易持续时间的均值为4.38年,中位数为3年。运用离散时间Probit、Logit和Cloglog模型,分析影响制造业产品出口贸易关系持续时间的决定因素,3个模型的分析结果均表明：美国经济发展、制造业产品出口贸易规模及其重要程度、差异化产品等因素,均对出口贸易关系持续时间具有显著的正向影响,但单位产品价值越高的出口产品,其贸易关系持续时间越短。

HS6 product code data from 1998 to 2014 is used by the authors to analyze the duration of manufacturing products exported from China to the United States. The findings indicate that the mean duration of manufacturing products exported from China to the U.S. is 4.38 years, with the median of 3 years. Based on the analysis, discrete time models such as Probit, Logit and Cloglog are used respectively to analyze the determinants of the duration. The results show that the development of U. S. economy, the scale and importance of export trade in manufacturing products, and differentiated products etc. all have significant positive influence on the duration. However, the higher the unit value of commodities have, the shorter of the duration.