零通胀与最优货币政策选择及在中国的检验——基于粘性价格模型的实证分析

The Choice between Zero Inflation and Optimal Monetary Policy and the Verification in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on Sticky Price Model

对于一个国家来说,零通胀与最优货币政策都是一个很好的选择,那么,零通胀政策与最优货币政策对中国主要经济变量的影响是怎样的呢？从这样的切入点,文章试图构建一个包括家庭与厂商的粘性价格模型来分析不同政策下主要经济变量的关系及动态变化过程,以此来判断不同政策因素对主要经济变量的影响,并采用蒙特卡罗数值模拟算法来对模型变量进行检验,最后利用中国1994～2014年的数据,检验并比较了不同的政策对中国主要经济变量通胀率、利率水平及产出缺口的影响。分析发现,零通胀政策与最优货币政策相比,其对相对价格扭曲的影响更大,对于降低通胀来说,零通胀政策比最优政策更有效果,而且降低通胀的效果也更明显。从增加社会产出这一角度来说,最优政策下的产出水平要远大于零通胀政策的产出水平,而且最优货币政策下的产出波动幅度更小。因此,从促进产出增长的角度来说,最优货币政策要优于零通胀政策。

Both zero inflation and optimal monetary policy are good choices for a country, and what might be the impact of the two policies on the main economic variables of China？ From the perspective, the paper tries to construct a sticky price model including enterprise and family to analyze the relationship between the main economic variables and their dynamic changing process under different policies. As a result, the authors aim to make judgment on the influence of different policy factors on the main economic variables. Monte Carlo numerical simulation is used to verify the variables of the model, and the influences of China＇ s different policies on the main economic variables including inflation rate, interest rate, and output gap are compared by using data from 2004 to 2014. The analysis shows that zero inflation policy has stronger influence on relative price distortion monetary policy, and it is more effective in lowering inflation with better results. From the angle of increasing social output, the output level under the optimal monetary policy is much higher than that of the zero policy with less output fluctuations. Therefore, from the perspective of promoting output increase, optimal monetary policy is better than zero inflation policy.