事故系统风险涌现与传递的形式化描述

Formalized description of risk emergence and risk transfer in accident system

为有效预防涉及复杂系统的灾难性事故,揭示复杂系统一般性事故规律,提出有效的风险控制对策,通过构建与复杂系统相映射的事故系统模型。考虑事故系统的风险动态演化特性,探究复杂系统风险控制新途径。从致因节点输入输出有界和风险熵阈值突破2个角度,给出节点风险涌现的形式化描述。基于耦合同步观点,提出事故涌现的描述方法。引入风险增长速度、外界控制资源和耦合参数等变量。构建事故系统单节点和双节点的风险传递模型。结果表明,为预防事故,应杜绝风险涌现的耦合同步,减小风险增长速度和适量增加外界控制资源,减缓风险传递效应。

To effectively prevent catastrophic accidents involving complex systems, an accident model was built which mapping onto a complex system. A new method was worked out for controlling risk in the accident system after considering dynamic evolution properties of the risk. From two perspectives of stable input and output and breakthrough risk entropy thresholds of causation nodes a formalized description of risk emergence was given. Based on the coupling synchronization view, a method was worked out for describing accident emergence. Variables were introduced, such as risk growth rate, external control resources and coupling parameters. Accident system one node and two nodes risk transfer models were built. The results show that preventing accidents requires eliminating coupling synchronization of risk emergence reducing risk growth speed and increasing external control resources.