房价波动的理论分析与实证检验——基于货币供给的视角

A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of House Price Fluctuation from the Viewpoint of Money Supply

房价受货币供给的影响较大,两者表现出较强的同步效应,货币供给变化是近年来我国房价波动的根本原因。房地产调控应以需求侧调控为主,辅助货币政策的预防性调控,当政府增加货币供给时,适当约束资金进入房地产市场,以应对未来个人需求能力增加而带来的房价上涨,反之则适当放松资金进入房地产市场,抵消未来个人需求能力减小而带来的房价下降。预防性调控能防止货币供给变化对房地产市场稳定发展造成干扰,同时避免房地产市场吸收政策效果而影响宏观调控预期。

House prices are greatly influenced by money supply, which shows a strong synchronization effect. And the change of money supply is the basic reason for the price fluctuation in China in recent years. Regulating the real estate should center around demand-side control supplemented by preventive control of monetary policy. When the government increases money supply, the money entering into the real estate market should be constrained properly to deal with rising house prices caused by the increase in individual demands in future. Otherwise, it is suggested to properly loosen the money entering into the real estate market so as to offset the decline of house prices caused by the decrease in individual demands. Preventive regulation can prevent the disturbance caused by the change of money supply to the stable development of the real estate market while avoiding the impact of the real estate market on the anticipation of macro regulation due to the absorption of policy effects.