“新共识”框架下日本央行预期管理有效性研究

The Research on Effectiveness of Expectation Management of Central Banks of Japan Under the“New Consensus”Macroeconomic Framework

基于"新共识"宏观经济学货币政策理论,比较研究了金融危机前后日本两次量化宽松货币政策在预期管理方面的不同特征。从理论上推导出基础货币规模扩大、汇率贬值以及明确的正通胀目标可以改善公众预期,并采用VAR模型检验2009年以来日本央行预期管理的效果。研究认为:货币政策管理预期的效果具有时间一致性;公众预期的扭转是一个长期且缓慢的过程,在经济下行期改善央行预期管理效果需要价格型和数量型多种政策工具的配合操作。

Under the ＂New Consensus＂ macroeconomic framework, this paper analyses the different char-acteristics of quantitative easing of Japan before and after the financial crisis. Theoretical analysis shows that in- creasing monetary base, devaluation and inflation targeting will improve the public expectation. Combined with the results of a VAR model based on the data since 2009, this paper concludes that： the effectiveness of the man- agement of the central bank is time-consistent; the reverse of public expectation is a long and slow process, in e- conomic downturn, the combination of different monetary policy instruments is important in managing expecta-tions.