韶关市雷暴时空变化的特征分析

Analysis of the Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Thunderstorm in Shaoquan City

利用韶关地区8个国家气象观测站1965-2013年逐日雷暴资料，采用数理统计、M—K突变检验、保证率计算、重现期计算等分析韶关雷暴的时空变化特征。结果表明：韶关地区雷暴空间分布总体上呈南多北少，年雷暴日数64．9～76．1d，属雷暴多发区；年雷暴日数总体呈减少趋势，约以每年0．5d的速度减少。雷暴活动具有明显的季节变化，夏季雷暴数最多，春季次之，冬季最少。各地雷暴平均持续期在231—240d，总体呈南短北长。50年一遇的雷暴初日普遍在1月中旬，终日在12月中旬末至下旬初之间；而5年一遇的雷暴初日普遍在2月，终日普遍在11月。

Using day-to-day data of thunderstorms from 1965 to 2013 at eight national observation stations in the Shaoguan area and with methods of mathematical and physical statistics, Mann-Kendal test, assurance rate and return period, we studied the spatial and temporal variations of the thunderstorm in the area. The result is shown as follows. In the Shaoquan area, the thunderstorm is generally more in the south than in the north with an annual occurrence of 64.9 to 76.1 days, belonging to a zone of frequent occurrence. The annual frequency of thunderstorm tends to decrease at a rate of 0.5 d generally. Varying with obvious seasonality, it is most active in summer, less active in spring and least active in winter. Lasting for 231 to 240 d on average, the thunderstorm generally occurs over shorter duration in the south than in the north. For the annually first （last） day of thunderstorms at the intensity of once every 50 years, it is usually in mid-January （between the middle and last 10 days of December）. For the annually first （last） day of thunderstorms at the intensity of once every 5 years, it is generally in February （November）.