基于物理量产品配料法的南平市汛期暴雨预报

Forecasting Heavy Rains of Raining Seasons of Nanping City Based on a Burdening Method with Products of Physical Quantities

通过对2003—2012年实况物理量资料与南平市汛期(5—6月)12 h时效雨量进行相关分析,选取与暴雨相关性较好的15种物理量产品进行暴雨阈值设定,建立了基于物理量产品配料法的南平市汛期12 h时效暴雨预报平台,在实际应用中还采用T639物理量产品进行12 h时效短期暴雨预报,该预报平台具有较好的暴雨预报能力,对预报员在短临和短期暴雨预报中有较好的参考作用;与使用实况物理量预报相比,实况物理量预报准确率要比T639物理量产品预报要好,这是因为基于T639数值预报产品的暴雨预报准确率还要依赖于T639物理量产品的准确性与稳定性。

Observations of physical quantities from 2003 to 2012 are used to run correlation analysis for 12 h rainfall amounts in the raining season （May and June） of Nanping City and thresholds are set for 15 products of the physical quantities that have relatively good correlation. On the base of it, a platform for forecasting 12 h heavy rainfall in the city is set up using a burdening method. During routine application, the products of physical quantities from T639 were also used to run 12 h short-term heavy rain forecasts. Having good capabilities, the platform is good reference for the forecaster in nowcasting and short-range forecasting. Compared with the forecasts using observed physical quantities, the observed physical quantities are more accurately forecast than those using the T639 products of physical quantities, because the accuracy of heavy rain forecast with the T639 products relies on the accuracy and stability with the T639 products.