基于风电功率周期特性的组合预测研究

COMBINATION FORECASTING BASED ON THE PERIODIC CHARACTERISTIC OF WIND POWER

依据风电功率存在周期性分量,提出实时提取周期分量的风电功率组合预测模型,该预测模型将周期分量的单步周期预测值和剩余分量的单步混沌预测值合成为风电功率时间序列的单步预测值,将合成的预测值作为真实值加入到原序列中,构成新的时间序列,再次提取周期分量,进行下一次预测。以东北某风电场的实测有功数据为例,对风电功率进行实时预测,预测结果验证了模型的有效性。

Based on the periodic component of the wind power, the multi-step forecasting of wind power prediction model based on extracting periodic component was proposed. In the model, the value of forecasting of the periodic component with forecasting of the residual component was added to the original sequence, and extracting periodic component and forecasting was made. Based on the measured data, a northeast wind farm as an example, the forecasting of wind power verifies the validity of the index.