基于德格鲁特模型的社会预期形成机制与央行引导预期的有效性

The Formation Mechanism of Social Expectation Based on the De Groot Model and the Effectiveness of the Center Bank's Expectation Guidance

本文以德格鲁特的社会影响模型为基础,建立了一个社会学习的价格预期形成机制模型,并结合复杂适应系统模拟,探讨了三种社会影响结构矩阵下价格预期形成的收敛性、共识性、收敛速度、准确度和各主体的影响力。在此基础上,进一步模拟分析了央行公信度下降造成的影响和央行引导预期的有效性问题。研究发现:价格预期多数情况下都能够收敛并达成共识,但在预期收敛速度和准确度上存在差异;央行的公信度下降,会造成社会预期收敛的速度变慢和预期误差大的不良影响;通过引导机构或公众的预期可以在不同程度上提高央行的影响力和社会预期的准确度。

Based on the De Groot＇s social influence model,by using the methods of complex adaptive system simulation,the paper discusses the convergence,the consensus,the speed and the accuracy of the price expectation as well as every agent＇degree of influence under three social influence structures. Then,the paper further simulates the influence of the decrease of the center bank＇s credibility and the effectiveness of the center bank＇s expectation guidance. The study shows that the price expectations can converge and reach a consensus under most situations,but differ in the speed and the accuracy. The descent of the center bank＇s credibility will result in the slower speed of the social expectation convergence as well as the bigger expectation error. The center bank can improve the degree of its influence and the social expectation＇s accuracy through the guidance of the institutions and the public＇s expectations.