我国物流产业与四化同步发展研究基于VAR模型的实证

Study on the “Four Modernizations Synchronization”Development in China Based on the VAR Model Empirical Research

基于物流产业构建我国"四化"评价指标体系,应用因子分析法对我国"四化"与物流产业发展情况进行评价和分析,然后构建VAR模型对"四化"与物流产业协同发展进行实证分析,检验结果表明各序列为一阶单整序列并存在协整关系,而格兰杰因果检验结果显示"四化"与物流产业之间存在融合不够、互动不足等问题,进一步通过VAR(1)模型、脉冲响应及方差分解则表明"四化"与物流产业之间互相作用,不可或缺,须加大协同发展力度,最后部分基于物流产业提出促进"四化同步"发展的政策建议。

This paper applied factor analysis to evaluate and analysis their development situation in China,then build the VAR model for an empirical analysis on the collaborative development of“four modernizations”and logistics industry,statistical test results show that the variable sequences is I（1）and there is a cointegration relationship,but granger causality test results show there are the problems of the integration insufficient and interactive lack between the each variable,further through VAR （1 ）model,impulse response and variance decomposition,the results show that the variables are interaction,each is essential, must increase the intensity of their collaborative development.The last part of the paper puts forward the suggestions to promote the development of“four modernizations synchronization”based on the logistics industry.