中韩住房政策对商品住房价格变动影响的实证分析——以上海和首尔为例

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Housing Policies on the Fluctuation of Houses between China and Korea——Taking Shanghai and Soul as Examples

文章以中韩住房政策为研究对象,对其进行数值化处理,同时引入货款利率、住房竣工面积,分别针对中国的中心城市上海和韩国的中心城市首尔,以1999年第一季度至2009年第四季度的数据为基础,建立了住房政策、商品住房价格、货款利率和住房竣工面积相互影响的VAR模型,对四因素间的相互关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,中国的住房政策对上海商品住房价格存在显著的单向因果关系,韩国首尔却不存在这种关系;随着时间的推移,中国住房政策对上海商品住房价格方差变异的贡献率越来越小;在住房政策对商品住房价格方差变异贡献率出现大幅上涨和下降时,中国和韩国使用的政策手段和政策对象均不同。

This paper studies the housing policies of China and Korea, and establishes the VAR model including housing policies, commercial housing prices, loan interest rates and areas of housing completion from 1999 to 2009 of both Shanghai and Soul. The results show that there is a significant unidirectional causality between housing policy and commercial housing price of Shanghai, while there is no such a causality in Soul. As time goes on, the contribution of housing policy in China to the price variance of housing in Shanghai becomes smaller and smaller. Meanwhile, both Chinese government and Korean government apply different policies to different residential groups when there is a significant inflation or deflation of variance between housing policies and commercial housing prices.