大数据国际政治研究的回顾与展望

Big Data International Politics:Issue Areas and Research Levels

近年来,随着数据挖掘算法和新数据库的不断引入,大数据国际政治研究逐渐发展起来。这一新的研究方向目前已在暴力冲突研究、反恐研究、国际政治传播学研究以及公共外交中取得了一定成果。大数据与国际政治研究的结合可以在事件预测与辅助决策、微观理论和中层理论研究,以及宏观理论研究这三个层次上得以实现。然而,大数据国际政治研究也必须应对数据和算法的不完善性所带来的挑战。大数据国际政治研究的未来方向不仅仅是加强实际应用,而且更应该侧重完善学科的理论建构。为此,应开发新的数据源,倡导多种研究方法的协同运用,大胆创造新的算法-数据实体,建立新的研究合作机制,并积极运用可视化技术。

In recent years,what is called Big Data International Politics（BDIP）has made much progress with ever-increasing algorithms and data resources.BDIP has achieved a lot in research on violent conflicts,terrorism as well as the cross-field of international political communication and public diplomacy.Research combining Big Data and international politics is expected to be realized on three levels：event prediction and aided decision making;research concerning theories of micro and middle range;and research with a grand theory ambition.However,this new direction has to deal with the imperfectness of data and algorithms.In future,BDIP should put more weight on theory construction rather than application.This calls for new data resources,the combination of various methodologies,innovative algorithm-data entities, new cooperative mechanisms of research and more frequent use of data visualization.