基于模糊综合评判的海洋溢油污染评估模型研究

Marine oil-spill pollution assessment model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

在分析总结相关研究成果的基础上,利用模糊综合评估方法,对溢油污染程度相关影响因素进行深入分析研究,对溢油污染程度评估指标体系进行改进和完善,提出溢油量和离岸距离两个影响因子新的隶属度函数,构建新的海域敏感区隶属度子集表并计算各指标的权重。最后,应用此模型对2002年渤海绥中36-1油田中心平台溢油事故进行评估,结果显示污染程度评估等级有明显提高,以期为海洋溢油污染评估提供科学依据,并通过提高污染评估等级引起人们对海洋环境的重视。

Based on previously published research from studies using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we make an in-depth analysis of the impact factors related to oil spills, improve the oil-spill pollution degree evaluation index system, propose new membership functions for the oil spill inventory and offshore distance, construct a new subset table of the ocean-sensitive area degree of membership, and calculate the weight of each index. Lastly, to validate the scientific bases of our oil-spill pollution evaluation, we validate the proposed model using a case-study instance; the results show that the pollution grade is higher than in previous measurements.