基于空间计量模型的河南省用水效率影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Water Use Efficiency in Henan Province Based on Spatial Econometric Models

在水资源总量约束下,提高水资源利用效率是保障缺水地区城镇化、工业化与经济社会发展的必然途径。论文以河南省地级市2000—2013年面板数据为基础,运用空间计量模型,从水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构、用水结构、农业现代化水平、信息化水平等方面入手,对河南省用水效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)河南省地级市用水效率存在不可忽视的空间自相关特征,时空固定形式下的空间杜宾模型可以实现其最优模拟;2)河南省各地级市用水效率明显受邻近地级市用水效率的影响,其空间溢出弹性系数达到0.31;3)水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的负向影响,但其空间溢出效应不明显;4)经济发展水平、城镇化发展水平、产业结构优化水平对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的正向影响,而且除工业化水平外,空间溢出效应十分明显;5)用水结构变化、农业现代化、信息化水平与河南省用水效率的相关关系总体不明显,河南省水资源可持续利用与全国"四化"协调发展示范区建设的关系有待进一步协调。

Constrained by total amount of water resources, the improvement of water use efficiency is the necessary way to guarantee the development of urbanization, industrialization and social-economy in water scarce areas. Based on the panel data of the prefecture-level cities during the period of 2000-2013, we analyzed the influencing factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province by spatial econometric models, from the aspects of water resources endowment, water resources development level, economic development level, urbanization level, industrial structure, water utilization structure, agricultural modernization level and information level. The results show that： 1） There are notable spatial autocorrelation of water use efficiency among different prefecture- level cities in Henan Province, which can be best estimated by Spatial Dubin Model with spatial- temporal fixed effect. 2） The spatial spillover effect of water use efficiency in Henan Province is significant, i.e., if the water use efficiency in the neighboring prefecture- level cities increased 1%, then the water use efficiency of the prefecture- level city would increase 0.31%. 3） The endowment and the development level of water resources have significant negative effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. However, the spatial spillover effects are not significant. 4） The economic development level, the urbanization level and the industrial structure optimization level have significant positive effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture- level cities in Henan Province. Moreover, the spatial spillover effect of each factor is very significant except for the industrialization level. 5） The change of water utilization structure, the agricultural modernization level and informatization level have few effects on the water use efficiency of prefecture- level cities in Henan Province. It indicates that a further coordination should be strengthened on the relationship between the sustainable utilization of water resources and the construction of national demonstration area of coordinated development of urbanization,industrialization, informatization agricultural modernization in Henan Province.