高等教育能打破社会阶层固化吗?--基于有序probit半参数估计及夏普里值分解的实证分析

Does Higher Education Break down Social Class Solidification?An Empirical Study Based on Ordered-probit Semi-parameter Estimation and Shapely Value Decomposition

文章基于2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2013)数据,首先运用有序probit模型的半参数估计方法检验高等教育对社会阶层的影响,其次采用最新发展的基于R2的夏普里值方法测度高等教育对社会分层形成的贡献率,并从区域视角管窥经济发展和市场化转型条件下高等教育受影响的演进趋势。结果显示:(1)接受过高等教育的居民,确实拥有更高的社会阶层评估。但若剔除家庭背景带来的接受高等教育机会的差距,高等教育促进社会阶层流动的能力明显弱化。基于R2的夏普里值分解表明,高等教育变量的贡献率不到10%,撇去高等教育的代际传递效应后,净效应更低。(2)东部地区有微弱的证据显示高等教育带来的社会阶层提升效应正在展现。无论是从总贡献率还是分解后的直接贡献率看,东部地区的百分比贡献都要高于中西部地区。这说明随着经济发展和市场化改革的推进,高等教育改善社会分层的效果有可能会强化。(3)影响社会分层差异最重要的因素为家庭过去的社会阶层,即社会阶层分布存在明显的代际传递现象。另外,个体特征及经济特征也是影响社会分层的重要因素。文章研究显示,要进一步推进开放型社会阶层的形成,需要在构建市场化导向能力本位的新型社会流动体系制度框架下,确立更为公平的高等教育竞争机制及补偿机制。

Based on CGSS2013, this paper firstly employs ordered-probit semi-parameter estimation model to test the effect of higher education on social classes. Secondly, it measures the contribution of higher education to the formation of social classes by using Sharply value method based on R2 , and sheds light on the evolution of higher education af- fected by economic development and marketization transformation from a regional perspec tive. It arrives at the results as follows- firstly, the residents who receive higher education actually gain higher social class assessment; however, if the gap between higher education opportunities resulting from family background is eliminated, the role of higher education in promoting the flow of social classes obviously weakens; furthermore, Sharply value de composition based on R2 shows that the contribution rate of higher education variable is under 10 percent, and after skimming intergenerational effect of higher education, the net effect is even lower; secondly, in East China, weak evidence shows that the positive effect of higher education on social classes is emerging; as for both total contribution rate and de composed direct contribution rate, the contribution rate of East China is higher than the ones of Central China and West China, showing that as economic development and mar- ketization reform advance, the effect of higher education on improving social classes may strengthen; thirdly, past social classes families belong to are the most important factor af- fecting differences in social classes, namely there is obvious intergenerational transmission in social class distribution; in addition, individual characteristics and economic features are critical factors affecting social classes. It shows that in order to further advance the forma- tion of openness social classes, it is necessary to establish more fair higher education competition mechanism and compensation mechanism in the framework of new-type social mobility system with market-oriented capability standard.