“机会主义”策略及其在我国财政政策规则中的运用

The Opportunistic Strategy and Its Application in China's Fiscal Policy Rules

财政政策既要发挥内在的自动稳定器功能,又要体现政府的政策意图,具有与"机会主义"策略一致的内涵。文章将"机会主义"策略融入财政政策规则,对我国财政政策对通胀和产出的调节是否表现出"机会主义"策略进行了研究,得到的主要结论可以概括为:我国财政政策对通胀和经济增长目标值的关注表现出较强的时变性,且其对经济增长的调节依赖于对经济增速中间目标的偏离程度。当经济增速与中间目标的偏离位于区间[-0.95%,2.85%]内时,财政政策将发挥内生的自动稳定器功能,表现出较强的惰性;而当经济增速与其中间目标的偏离位于该区间外时,财政政策则表现出较强的活性,会对经济增长产生积极的调节作用。

The regulation of fiscal policies not only exerts intrinsic automatic stabilizer function, but also embodies policy intentions of governments, being consistent with op- portunistic strategy. This paper incorporates the idea of opportunistic strategy into fiscal policy rules to study the existence of opportunistic strategy in the regulation of fiscal poli- cies on inflation and output in China. It arrives at the main findings as follows： the fiscal policy targets including inflation and economic growth show stronger time-varying charac- teristics, and the regulation on economic growth depends on the deviation from the intermediate target of economic growth. Specifically speaking, while the deviation between economic growth and its intermediate target is within the interval between -0.95% to 2.85%, fiscal policies exert intrinsic automatic stabilizer function, showing stronger inertia; while the deviation between economic growth and its intermediate target is out of the interval between -0.95% to 2.85%, fiscal policies tend to be active, and play an active moderating role in economic growth.