伊拉克库尔德人难以独立的国际法检视

Unlikely Prospect of Iraqi Kurds' Independence Based on International Law

伴随着中东地缘政治的变化,库尔德人独立问题时隐时现。中东变局发生以来,在打击"伊斯兰国"的过程中,伊拉克库尔德人实力大增,加紧了独立活动。无论从国际法上的民族自决原则,还是从"新民族自决权"观点考量,库尔德人独立均不具备坚实的国际法基础,其独立行为得不到伊拉克中央政府的同意,单方宣布独立也不具备相关法律要件,且会遭到美国等西方大国和土耳其、叙利亚、伊朗等中东国家的反对,库尔德人恐难突破上述层层阻力。从未来发展看,库尔德人独立问题具有复杂性,会引发"溢出效应",并对现有国际法构成挑战。此外,外部力量干预是研判库尔德问题发展走向的重要影响因素。

As changes emerge in the Middle East geopolitics, the issue of Kurdish independence is flickering. After the upheavals in the Middle East, the strength of the Iraqi Kurds is greatly increased in the process of fighting against the Islamic State, speeding up its steps toward independence. However, neither the traditional definition of national self - determination nor the newly developed one could provide a legal basis for the independence of Iraqi Kurds. On the feasibility of all legal paths to independence, the central government of Iraq will make no agreement. If the Kurds unilaterally declared independence, they would not have the relevant legal basis and would be strongly opposed by Western and regional powers such as the United States and Iraq＇ s neighbors （Turkey, Syria, and Iran） . The Iraqi Kurds are just not strong enough to overcome these impediments. In terms of the future development ＂spillover effect＂ complexity of the Kurds＇ independence would lead to and pose great challenge to the existing international law. In addition, external intervention is an important influencing factor to study the development of the Kurds＇ issue