老年人照料负担比:一个基于宏观视角的指数构建及对中国的分析

Levels and Trendsin Elderly Care Dependency Ratio in China:A Comparative Perspective

文章通过构建"老年人照料负担比"指数,从宏观角度分析中国老年人照料资源供求关系及其变化的趋势,并在国际比较的基础上探讨了中国老年人照料负担的特点。研究发现,中国目前的老年人照料负担仍处于较轻阶段,但分省来看,在照料负担的水平、城乡差异及差异格局上都呈现出显著的不同。从未来的变化趋势看,中国的老年人照料负担将持续提高,在2030年代进入重负阶段,2040年代进入超重负阶段,2080年可能成为全世界老年人照料负担最重的国家。在老年人照料人力资源供求关系日趋紧张的情况下,除了传统的非正式照料支持系统,还须建立正式的社会照料支持系统。因此,无论是社会民众还是政府都需有长远的目光,社会发展也需要更为适应老龄社会的长远制度安排。

By constructing the index of ＂ elderly care dependency ratio＂ from a macro perspective, this paper examines the relation between supply and demand of Chinese elderly care resource and its trends, and discusses the characteristics of Chinese elderly care burden based on international comparisons. While the burden of caring for elderly is still in a very mild stage, there are significant differences in the levels and patterns of elderly care dependency among China＇ s provinces and between urban and rural areas. Looking into the future, the burden of caring for the elderly in China will continue to increase, stepping into a heavy-burden stage in the 2030s and a super heavy-burden stage in the 2040s. Therefore, institutional arrangements in a long-term perspective are needed in coping with an ageing sociely.