区域人口城镇化多维特征对居民电力消费的驱动影响--基于浙江省分县数据的实证研究

Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization and Residential Electricity Consumption:A County-level Study in Zhejiang Province

人口城镇化是能源消费和碳排放增长最重要的驱动因素之一,也是居民电力消费增长的核心驱动因素。以往的研究仅考虑人口城镇化水平的影响,忽略了人口城镇化的异质性模式的影响,且对低层次空间单元的关注不够。文章集成浙江省2000年和2010年分县数据,将区域人口城镇化特征分解为水平、形态、结构和阶段,利用固定效应模型分析其对居民电力消费的驱动影响。结果发现:区域人口城镇化水平提高、形态紧凑化、结构本地化、发展阶段高端化、平均家庭户规模缩小、劳动参与率降低对居民电力消费有着显著的驱动影响,而户均房间数减少则有抑制作用。未来新型城镇化应规范人口城镇化水平的统计标准,提倡紧凑型人口城镇化形态,协调人口城镇化和土地城镇化,加强电力配套保障。

Literature suggests that urbanization is one of the core drivers of energy consumption and carbon emissions, especially for the rapidly growth of residential electricity demand. Previous studies have only focused on the impacts of urbanization level, but ignored the multiple dimensions of urbanization and how they drive the residential electricity consumption at the local level. In this paper we decompose multiple dimensions of urbanization into level, pattern, structure and systemic position using 2000 and 2010 county-level data in Zhejiang Province, China, and test the local drivers of residential electricity consumption with fixed-effect models. Results reveal that higher per capital residential electricity usage is associated with higher urbanization level, more concentrated population distribution, higher systemic position, shrinking household size, declining labor participating rate, and higher average number of residential rooms. Policy implications are discussed.