CMIP5模式对东北地区气温模拟能力评估

Assessment of Capability of CMIP5 Model to Simulate Air Temperature in Northeast China

利用CMIP5的多模式集合资料和中国东北地区162个站点逐月平均气温实测资料,从时间变化和空间分布两方面评估了CMIP5模式对1961~2005年中国东北地区气温的模拟能力。结果表明：全球气候模式能够较好地再现东北地区气温显著增高趋势和年平均气温由南向北递减的纬向分布特征以及冷暖中心。EOF分析结果显示,东北地区20世纪90年代以前增温较慢,90年代之后增温较快,东北地区年平均气温呈现南北反位相的时空变化特征。模拟结果和观测结果具有较好的一致性。

Using the multi-mode collection data of CMIP5 and the monthly average air temperature data of 162 sites in the northeast of China,we assessed the ability of CMIP5 model to simulate the air temperature in the northeast of China from 1961 to2005 from the aspects of time change and spatial distribution. The results showed that the global climate model could better reappear the significant rising trend of air temperature,the latitudinal distributive characteristics of average annual air temperature which decreased gradually from south to north,and the cold-warm center in Northeast China. EOF analysis indicated that： in the northeast of China,the warming was slow before the 1990 s,and was fast after the 1990s; the average annual air temperature revealed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of north-south anti-phase. The simulative results and observation results had a better consistency.