基于层次分析法的我国罗非鱼养殖风险研究

Risk study on Tilapia farming in China based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)

罗非鱼养殖过程中面临很多风险,为了量化罗非鱼养殖风险的影响因素,评估养殖风险等级,以主产区罗非鱼养殖为例,分别从自然、市场、操作和政策四个方面,运用层次分析法和德尔菲专家调查法,建立风险评价指标体系,对各风险因素的影响程度打分,对两两因素相对重要性给出定量表示,整理并分析获得的数据资料。结果表明:我国罗非鱼养殖风险等级为B级,养殖风险很高,其中市场风险和自然风险是影响罗非鱼产业风险的重要因素,其次是政策风险,操作风险的影响程度最小。自然风险中以极端天气的影响程度最大,市场风险中受出口订单量的影响程度最大,操作风险中病害防控能力影响程度较大,政策风险中地方发展规划会极大地影响罗非鱼产业的可持续发展。

In order to quantify the risk factors and assess the risk levels in tilapia farming,this paper was based on the main producing areas of tilapia farming in China and studied the risk factors from the aspects of nature,market,operation and policy,with which,the risk evaluation index system was established. Impact degrees of the risk factors were graded,the relative importance of every two factors was quantified,and finally the impact degree of various risk factors was collected and analyzed based on analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） and Delphy expert investigation method. The results show that the risk level of tilapia farming falls into B level which is very high,and market and natural risks are the important factors affecting the risk level of tilapia farming,followed by policy risk,and then operational risk. While in terms of the impact degree of risk factors,extreme weather in all the natural risk comes first,as well as export order amount in market risks,disease control and prevention ability in operational risks,and local development planning in policy risks which will have the greatest impacts on the sustainable development of tilapia industry.