病例对照研究和Logistic回归分析在食源性疾病爆发事件中的应用

Application of Case Control Study and Logistic Regression Analysis in Food Borne Disease Outbreak Events

目的：查明2014年10月10日甘肃省定西市一起食源性疾病爆发事件的发生原因、范围和途径,为采取有效的预防及控制措施提供科学依据。方法：对病例进行现场流行病学调查,通过描述性流行病学和分析性流行病学查找可疑食物。结果：共计发病26人,罹患率28.9%;临床症状主要以腹泻、腹痛、头痛为主;根据罹患率卡方检验（χ2=52.373,P=0.000）、病例对照研究和Logistic回归分析（OR=14.000,95%CI：2.324~84.321）,显示农夫折骨鸡为最可疑食物。结论：食用被细菌污染的农夫折骨鸡是导致本次食源性疾病爆发事件的主要原因,建议加强对餐饮机构厨师的监督管理,提高卫生安全意识,防止类似事件再次发生。

【Objective】To find out the reason,scope and way of the food borne disease outbreak event to provide scientific basis for reasonable and effective prevention and control measures. 【Method】We conducted a field epidemiological investigation on the case,and found out the suspicious food by descriptive epidemiology and analytical epidemiology. 【Result】A total of 26 patients fell ill and prevalence rate was 28. 9%. Clinical symptoms were mainly diarrhea,abdominal pain and headache. According to the prevalence rate of chi square test（ χ2= 52. 373,P = 0. 000）,case control study and logistic regression analysis（ OR = 14. 000,95% CI： 2. 324 ~ 84. 321） showed the farmer broken bone chicken was the most suspicious food. 【Conclusion】Bacterial contamination of the farmer broken bone chicken was the main reason of the food borne disease outbreak. It was suggested to strengthen the supervision and management of institutions catering chef and improve health and safety awareness to prevent similar incidents from happening again.