新常态下我国猪肉市场波动的周期性特点及发展趋势

Periodic Characteristics and Development Trends of Pork Market in China

自2015年初起,我国猪肉市场步入新的波动周期,并呈现出许多新的特点。受规模化迅速发展影响,猪周期被明显拉长,规模化养殖场已成为我国生猪养殖的主体,对传统的政策体系和科技支撑体系带来挑战。本轮周期之初,由于环保政策等因素影响,养殖户补栏并不积极,造成近期猪价持续攀升,随着结构调整接近尾声以及生猪供给能力的增强,后市猪肉供给有保障,但2016年全年猪价将高位震荡。

Since the beginning of 2015,China＇s pork market has been into a new fluctuation cycle,and has presented many new characteristics. Affected by the rapid development of large-scale farms,the cycle was significantly elongated,large-scale farms has become the main body of pig breeding in China,which had challenged the traditional policy system and science technology support system. At the beginning of this cycle,due to factors such as environmental policy,pig farmers were not active in increasing breeding amount,which led to the rising prices of pork. Due to a close with the structure adjustment and the increasing ability of the supply of live pigs,pork supply could be guaranteed in future,but pork prices would be high and volatile in the whole of 2016.