经济新常态下国际油价对我国CPI的冲击——基于小波多分辨率的实证分析

The Dynamic Transmission Path Research that International Oil Prices Impact China's CPI Sub-components in Economic New Normal——An Empirical Analysis Based on Wavelet Multi-resolution

中国作为能源消费和能源进口大国,原油储备和国际油价对其经济安全和物价水平有较大影响。近年来特别是在经济新常态下国际油价对居民消费价格的影响已受到政府和学界的广泛关注。基于国际一体化的背景,从国际供给视角,运用小波多分辨率方法分解国际油价对我国CPI的影响。研究发现:国际油价涨跌与我国CPI波动存在同向性,但相对于美国、日本、欧元区国家,国际油价对我国CPI的冲击较小,且短期冲击效应弱于中长期冲击效应;就中长期冲击传导路径来看,国际油价主要是通过居民汽车消费和住房消费等耐用品的供给影响CPI的变化。为有效应对国际油价波动对我国CPI的冲击,应从供给视角、需求视角和传导控制三方面进行应对。

China is a major consumer and importer of energy; crude oil reserves and international oil prices have a greater impact on China ’s economic security and price levels.In recent years,the impact of international oil prices on consumer prices has been widespread concerned in government and academia.Based on the background of international integration,from the perspective of international supply,multi-resolution wavelet method is used to decompose the impact of international oil prices on China ’s CPI.Based on the background of international integration and the perspective of international supply,international oil prices and China’s CPI data are decomposed into short-term and long-term time series data with wavelet multi-resolution decomposition method,testing that the international oil prices impact on China’s CPI component.It is found that there is coherence between the ups and downs of international oil prices and the CPI fluctuation,but compared with the US,Japan and euro-zone countries,the international oil price has a weaker influence on China’s CPI,and short-term impact effects weaker than the long-term impact.As to the pathway,the oil price impact upon china ’s CPI through the supply of residents’ durable consumer goods such as automotive and housing consumption in the medium and longer term.To effectively respond to fluctuations in the international oil price impact on China’s CPI,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the perspective of supply,demand and transmission control.