徘徊在十字路口的中亚国家经济

Economy of Central Asian Countries at a Crossroads

本文从外向型经济发展模式和国际合作格局两个层面分析了目前中亚国家经济困境的成因。10多年来,这一模式使中亚国家经济实现了快速发展,助其跨入工业化发展阶段,但也形成了对外部市场的依赖,加剧了经济下滑势头。根据国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织的预测,至2020年中亚国家整体经济形势和对外贸易前景并不乐观。着眼于长远发展,中亚国家面临工业化阶段调整经济结构的艰巨任务,需要进一步对外开放,国内应进一步深化市场经济体制改革。与此同时,中亚国家相继进入政府更迭的政治周期,各国政府能否作出既促进经济可持续发展,又保持政局稳定的抉择,对各国而言是一场严峻的考验。

This paper analyses the factors behind Central Asian countries' economic difficulties from two perspectives.Such a model has expedited economic growth and is conducive to their entry into industrialization phase.However,it also led to reliance upon foreign market and exacerbated economic downtown.It is a critical challenge for the countries to attain sustainable economic growth and political stability.