多模式综合交通客运方式选择行为决策机理——以大学生群体为例

Decision-making mechanism of integrated transportation multi-mode choice behavior for college students

在深入分析现有旅客乘车选择影响因素的基础上,充分考虑购票和接驳方式属性特征对旅客方式选择的影响,从全过程的视角设计旅客购票、到站、出行、离站出行选择行为实验,获取大学生高速巴士、普通火车、高铁、飞机多模式出行RP调查数据,将飞机作为参考方式建立大学生交通方式选择MNL模型,并进行了参数估计和显著影响因素的弹性分析.研究结果表明:(1)除生活费、出行目的及出行距离外,到站方式和时间也是影响旅客乘车选择的重要因素,提高交通枢纽可达性是调整交通方式市场份额的重要策略;(2)生活费低、出行距离和到站时间短、以探亲为目的的大学生更有可能选择大巴出行,而生活费高、出行距离和到站时间相对较短,以探亲为目的大学生选择高铁出行的可能性更大.

The impact factors of the passenger travel choice were made by taking full consideration of the effect of ticket purchase and transfer mode on the passenger mode choice, a travel choice behavior experiment was designed from the perspective of whole trip chain including ticket stage, access stage, travel stage and leave stage. In our analysis, college student travel survey data for bus, tradition train, high-speed train and plane was used to establish the MNL model of passenger travel mode choice. The parameter estimation and elastic analysis of significant factors were made to draw a conclusion. The research showed that the access mode and time were the important factor to affect the passenger travel choice in addition to the monthly income, travel distance and purpose. Improving the accessibility of transportation hub is an important strategy to adjust transportation market share. Moreover, bus is more likely to be chosen by college students who have low monthly income, short travel distance and access time for the purpose to visit relatives. However, subway is more likely to be chosen by college students who have higher monthly income, relatively short travel distance and access time for the purpose of visiting relatives.