房地产去库存化对中国宏观经济的影响——基于金融加速器的数值模拟分析

The Influence of the Real Estate Destocking on Macroeconomics:Numerical Simulation Analysis Based on the Financial Accelerator

将金融加速器理论引入DSGE模型中分析房地产去库存化对中国宏观经济波动的影响,并建立消费者、企业和金融中介的三部门经济进行数值模拟分析,将模拟结果与引入房地产去库存化之前各经济变量的脉冲响应结果和实际经济进行对比。研究发现,引入房地产去库存化之后,在金融加速器的作用下宏观经济波动变大,即产出、消费、投资和资本存量在短期内迅速下降,长期则趋于稳定,同时发现脉冲响应结果与中国经济的实际运行情况相符。模型能够较好模拟中国实际经济的运行,并能够对现实经济政策进行良好解释。

This paper develops a DSGE model and adds financial accelerator effect into the model,aiming to analyze Chinese macro- economy in the real estate destocking. It establishes three sector economies which include customers,corporations and financial intermediaries to do numerical simulation,and by comparing the simulation results with the impulse response of the economic variables before the introduction of real estate destocking and actual operating results of the economic. The study found that macroeconomic fluctuations increase under the financial accelerator after the introduction of real estate destocking. Namely output,consumption,investment and capital stock will decline rapidly in the short term and stabilize in the long term. It also found that the results of impulse response are consistent with the China＇s economy. Therefore,the model presented in this paper is a good selection for the China＇s economy; we can use this model to well explain the real economy.