基于马尔科夫链的电力负荷优化组合及应用

Power Loads Optimal Combination Based on Markov Chain and Its Application

具有波动性的电力用户负荷之间有的具有同时性,有的具有互补性,供电区内用户组成不同,则供电区综合负荷的波动性也不同。为提高配电网运行效率,改善配电网各供电区的综合负荷特性,文章提出负荷优化组合方法,并且为了能方便和有效地计及波动负荷序列的随机性,基于马尔科夫链理论对负荷进行建模和分析。首先对配电网内每个用户(负荷点)的历史日负荷曲线进行分类,并获得各用户的聚类负荷曲线;然后以日负荷曲线作为划分负荷状态的依据,基于马尔科夫链理论,对每个用户不同聚类状态及供电区综合负荷状态进行分析;最后基于负荷状态分析及用户的分配或再分配,建立以优化配电网各供电区综合负荷特性为目标的负荷优化组合模型,提出配电网各供电区的负荷最优组合方案。算例分析表明,提出的方法能有效优化供电区的综合负荷特性,达到削峰填谷、降低配电网损耗、提高配电网运行效率的目的,从而为配电网规划或改造提供参考。

This paper proposed a new planning idea and method for distribution networks considering load fluctuation based on power load optimal combination with Markov Chain, making analyses of random loads sequences efficient and resulting in better integrated load characteristics. Firstly, load curve states were classified for each consumer（load point） based on daily load data. Secondly, load state analyses of each single consumer and power supply area were conducted based on Markov Chain. Finally, in order to optimize integrated load characteristics, a model based on load state analysis was set up, capable of solving load optimal combination problem by adjusting network and load distribution. Case studies show that the developed method can be applied to optimize integrated load characteristics of power supply areas, reduce distribution network loss and provide guidance for distribution network planning and renovation.