天津市产业集聚与碳转移规律研究

Study of the Industrial Cluster and the Rule of Carbon Emissions Transfer of Tianjin

文章针对产业集聚对碳排放转移的影响,运用区位商和动态集聚指数方法测算天津市1997~2012年25个产业和碳排放集聚情况,进而分析产业集聚下碳排放转移规律。研究发现：比较劣势和逐步弱化产业发展速度较慢,碳排放转出;集聚形成和集聚强化产业发展速度较快,碳排放转入。产业集聚程度的高低对碳排放转移速度的影响存在差异：比较劣势产业增速均小于0.5,而碳排放转出速度较快;逐步弱化产业增速稍高,碳排放转出速度较慢;集聚形成阶段产业碳排放转入速度慢于产业集聚速度;而集聚强化阶段产业碳排放转入速度快于产业集聚速度。

This paper focuses on the influence of industry gathering on carbon emissions and measures the degree of industrial concentration and carbon emission gathering of Tianjin＇s 25 industrial sectors using location quotient and dynamic clustering index from 1997 to 2012.It further makes an analysis of the rule of carbon emission transfer in industrial agglomeration.The study found that comparative disadvantage industries and gradually weakening industries have slower pace of development,and the carbon emissions transfer out of Tianjin;the formative gathering industries and strengthening gathering industries have faster pace of development,and the carbon emissions gather and transfer into Tianjin.The influence on carbon emissions is different as the difference in industrial concentration degree：industries of comparative disadvantage stage with a low growth rate which is less than 0.5have a faster speed of carbon emissions transfer;industries of gradually weakening phase with a slightly higher growth rate have a slow speed of carbon emissions transfer;the speed of carbon emissions is slower than the industry in the formative gathering stage;the strengthening gathering stage is opposite.