我国《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》对安全生产战略影响量化分析

Quantitative analysis on influence of the 13th Five- Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of China on work safety strategy

安全生产与经济社会发展密切相关,历年国家五年规划纲要所明确的一系列经济社会发展体制机制改革和政策措施实施,都直接或间接影响着安全发展进程与成效。在对我国《"十三五"规划纲要》中283项相关事项梳理的基础上,坚持政策评估和风险评价相结合的原则,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,邀请专家学者从机遇、挑战、积极影响、消极影响4个维度,分重大、较大、一般3个层级对相关事项进行逐项量化评估。根据评估结果和量化计算模型,就《"十三五"规划纲要》对安全生产可能产生的整体战略影响进行了深入分析,并与《"十二五"规划纲要》影响进行比对,给出了有关宏观决策建议。

On the basis of combing the 283 related matters mentioned in the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of China , adhering to the principle of combining policy evaluation with risk assessment , the related matters were evaluated quantitatively one by one from four dimensions such as opportunities , challenges , positive effect and negative effect and three levels such as significant , large and general with the combined qualitative and quantitative methods by inviting the experts and scholars .According to the evaluation results and the quantitative calculation model , the possible impact of the 13 th Five-Year Plan on the overall strategy of work safety was deeply analyzed and compared with the influence of the 12 th Five-Year Plan.Finally, some macro decision suggestions were presented .