基于F-N曲线的煤矿重特大瓦斯爆炸事故伤亡规律研究

Study on regularities of casualties in major and extraordinarily serious gas explosion accidents of coal mine based on F- N curve

为研究煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的伤亡规律,以2000-2014年发生的230起重大及以上瓦斯爆炸事故为样本,运用统计学和F-N曲线法对事故特征进行了研究.首先,对事故起数和伤亡情况的时间特征进行了统计;其次,对事故起数和伤亡数量的地域性特征进行了研究;最后,基于F-N曲线法,对事故的死亡人数和受伤人数进行了规律分析.研究结果表明：15年间的瓦斯爆炸事故起数总体上呈逐年下降的趋势,但在2005年出现了峰值,死亡人数与事故起数的变化趋势接近,受伤人数变化趋势不太明显;重特大瓦斯爆炸事故主要发生在中部和西南地区,且尤以山西省最为显著,其事故起数和伤亡人数都是最多的;大多数事故造成了10~30人的死亡,其累计概率曲线在对数坐标中的梯度是-1.642,受伤人数最频繁的区间是1~10人,其累计概率曲线在对数坐标中的梯度是-0.652.

To reveal the regularities of casualties caused by gas explosion accidents in mine , 230 major and extraordinarily se-rious gas explosion accidents happened during 2000-2014 were selected as sample to study the accident characteristics by u -sing the statistics and F-N curve method .Firstly, the statistics on time characteristics of number of accidents and casualties was carried out.Secondly, the region characteristics of number of accidents and casualties were studied .Finally, the regu-larities of death toll and number of injuries in the accidents were analyzed .The results showed that the number of accidents in the fifteen years presented a trend of decrease year by year as a whole , and the peak value appeared in 2005 .The death toll presented a similar change trend with the number of accidents , and the change trend of number of injuries was not obvi-ous .The major and extraordinarily serious gas explosion accidents mainly happened in central and southwest China , especial-ly Shanxi province with the maximum number of accidents and casualties .Most of the accidents had the death toll as 10-30 , and the gradient of cumulative probability curve in logarithmic coordinate was -1.642.Most of the accidents had the num-ber of injuries as 1-10, and its gradient of cumulative probability curve in logarithmic coordinate was -0.652.