我国西瓜播种面积的影响因素分析

Empirical analysis of influencing factors on watermelon planting area in China

利用我国14个西瓜主产省区2009—2013年间的面板数据,采用固定效应模型对影响我国主产区西瓜播种面积变化的关键因素进行实证检验,并对其结果及政策含义做了较为详细的解释,不仅考虑到农业内不同作物之间的机会成本,还考虑了农业与非农业间的机会成本。结果表明:我国西瓜播种面积决策变化受对未来预期单产、劳动力机会成本及以往决策的影响显著,而预期相对价格对播种面积决策影响不显著,相对单产变化对播种面积棉花不敏感。据此提出3个建议:(1)完善社会化农户服务信息体系,为农户决策提供及时权威的信息支撑,引导农户转变短缺模式下的传统思维,由关注产量向更加重视市场价格和市场经营能力转变;(2)通过推广集约化嫁接育苗技术、水肥一体化等省工技术,,应对农业劳动力转移对西瓜产业发展的不利影响;(3)防止农户对过去种植经验的过度依赖,加强市场价格信息与农户以往种植经验的结合。

By using the panel data of 14 major watermelon producing provinces from 2009 to 2013, we presented a dynamic panel data methodology aiming at identifying the key variables that explain the change of watermelon planting area. The mode/used the expected to grow watermelons and other crops as key explanatory variables, and also used the previous experience in watermelon planting and agricultural labor transfer as a control variable. At the same time, we still gave the explanation of results in detail. Finally, the policy implications of results were also given. The results showed that the planting decisions of watermelon depended significantly on the experience in the process of watermelon growing, relative yield per unit area and the labor opportunity costs. However, the expected relative price did not play a significant role in changing the area of watermelon. The farmers were sensitive to the change of relative yield per unit, but less sensitive to the change of relative price, that meaned watermelon producers were weak in market operation capability. Based on the above analysis results, the paper put forward three suggestions： （ 1 ） Farmer households should change their traditional view and pay more attention to the market price and market operation ability, and the government should perfect the agricultural information social service system to help the farmer households to make more rational decisions; （ 2 ） The negative effects of transfer of agricultural such as labor could be offset by labor-saving technology intensive grafting technology, intezrative water and fertilizer planting technology etc ; （ 3 ） We should guide the farmers to use both the market information and farmers＇ experience in making planting decisions in order to avoid the farmers, dependent on experience too much.