21世纪初泰国军人集团政治回归的路径、动因与前景

The Path,Causes and Prospect of Political Regression of Thai Military Junta in Early 21st Century

21世纪初,泰国军方在国家发展模式变革过程中先后两次发动政变,重返权力核心。本文认为,促成泰国军人集团政治回归的主要动因在于既得利益集团的"反他信"共识,保守阵营复兴传统政治秩序的需要,以及社会民众对安定、和谐与发展的诉求。军人集团掌权后,通过创新制度安排、重塑传统意识形态、压制反对力量等方式,试图恢复传统政治秩序下的寡头权力结构。从目前看,泰国政治前景将在很大程度上取决于经济复苏进程。除非巴育政府能利用外部资源有效破解存量改革难题,否则新一轮的政治冲突与权力博弈很可能再次发生。

In early 21 st century, Thai military has launched coups for twice during the national development model change process, and returned to the core of power. There are three main causes that facilitated the political regres- sion of Thai military junta： The consensus of the vested interest groups on ＂anti-Thaksin＂ movement, the aspiration of the conservative camp on revival of the traditional political order, and the demand of the populace on stability, harmony and development. After coming to power, Thai military junta tried hard to recover the oligarchic power structure under the traditional political order, by introducing new institutional arrangements, reshaping the tradi- tional ideology, and repressing the political opponents. Judging from the current situation, Thailand＇s political future will largely depend on the economic recovery process. Unless the Prayut government can take advantage of external resources effectively to solve the stock reform problem, otherwise, it would likely trigger a new round of political conflict and power game again.