山西省城镇化与农民增收相互关系的实证研究

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Farmers' Income Growth in Shanxi Province

以山西省城镇化发展现状为切入点,运用基于向量自回归(Vector auto regression,VAR)模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析方法,对1978-2014年山西省农村居民人均纯收入与山西省城镇化率之间的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,山西省城镇化发展与农民增收之间存在着长期稳定的交互影响,但由于城镇化工作的开展与农民快速融入城镇化有一定的偏差,二者之间的相互影响和相互促进作用不明显。在此基础上提出进一步推进城镇化、促进农民收入增长的建议。

Taking the present situation of the development of the urbanization in Shanxi province as a breakthrough point, we analyzed the relationship between the per capita net income of farmers and the urbanization rate by impulse response function in Vector auto regression（VAR） model and variance decomposition on the basis of the per capita net income and the urbanization rate in Shanxi province between 1978 and 2014. The results showed that there was a stable interaction between the per capita net income of farmers and the urbanization rate in Shanxi province. However the interaction and the promotion are not significant due to the deviation between urbanization and the farmers assimilating into urbanization. Based on these results, suggestions were proposed to promote the development of the urbanization and to increase the income of farmers in Shanxi province.