农村CPI与收入差距对农民生活水平影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Influence of RCPI and IGUR on Farmers' Living Standard

农村消费者价格指数和收入差距对农民生活水平有着重要影响,为了探究二者的实际影响效果,采用自回归模型对其进行实证分析。结果显示,农村CPI和城乡居民收入差距与农民生活水平存在长期均衡关系。城乡收入差距与农民生活水平互为格兰杰因果关系,且长期起负向作用。农村CPI与农民生活水平不存在格兰杰意义上的因果关系,但短期内起正向作用,且通过城乡收入差距对农民生活水平产生间接作用。据此,提出了建立健全缩小城乡收入差距的长效机制、构建RCPI预警系统、推进农村供给侧改革等三个方面的政策建议。

The rural consumer price index and income gap have important influence on the peasants ＇ living standard. In order to explore the practical effect, using auto regressive model to carry out the empirical analysis. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the rural CPI, the urban-rural income gap and farmers＇ living standards. The urban-rural income gap and farmers＇ living standards had Granger causality and long term negative effect. The rural CPI and farmer＇s living standard had no Granger causality in the sense of Granger, but had a positive effect in the short term, and the rural CPI had an indirect effect on farmers ＇ living standard through the urban-rural income gap. Accordingly, the policy proposals were put forward from three aspects of establishing a sound long-term mechanism to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, building RCPI early warning system, and promoting rural supply-side reform.