中国高技术产品贸易关联要素互动关系研究

A Study of the Interactive Relationship between Factors of High-tech Products Trade in China

基于VAR模型,本文选取1996-2013年样本数据,运用协整检验及方差分解等计量方法,分析中国科研经费投入占GDP的比重、科研人员投入和高技术产品贸易特化系数的动态互动关系。研究结果表明这三个变量之间保持着高度的相关性,增加科研经费和人员投入对提高产品竞争力的贡献度分别为36.7%和3.4%;科研经费投入与科研人员投入相互促进,科研经费对科研人员投入的贡献度为26.34%,科研人员对科研经费投入的贡献度为9.26%。因此,中国提升高技术产品国际竞争力的重点在于提高科研经费投入和人员投入,并注重人力与财力投入比例,进而提高知识、技术和资本转变为现实生产力的效率。

Based on VAR model, this paper analyzes dynamic relationship between the proportion of research funding in GDP, R＆D personnel and Trade Specialization Coefficient of high-tech products from 1996 to 2013 by cointegration test, variance decomposition and so on. The study finds that there is a high correlation between them; increasing research fun- ding and personnel could improve competitiveness of the product, and the contribution of the two series are 36.7% and 3.4% separately; R＆D funding and R＆D personnel promote each other： the contribution of R＆D funding to R＆D per- sonnel is 26. 34%, but the contribution of R＆D personnel to R＆D funding is 9.26%. Therefore, the key of improving high-tecb product competitiveness is to increase R＆D funding and personnel, focus on the proportion of human and fun- ding and improve efficiency of transforming knowledge, technology and capital into real productivity.