核电厂火灾PSA中火灾场景频率分析方法

The Methodology of Fire Scenario Frequency Analysis in Fire PSA for Nuclear Power Plants

核电厂的火灾场景频率分析是火灾概率安全分析的核心内容。本文根据美国NRC和EPRI的《核动力设施火灾概率风险评价方法》,介绍了核电厂内部火灾概率安全评价中,火灾场景频率的分析方法及参数不确定性的处理方法。以福清一期核电厂某房间的电气柜火灾为例,进行了定量分析计算,计算结果表明,在计算中考虑热释放速率参数不确定性的传递可以有效降低计算结果的保守性。

The fire scenario frequency analysis is the core content of Fire Probabilistic Safety Assessment（ PSA）. Based on NRC and EPRI＇s study on Fire PSA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities,the methodology for the fire scenario frequency analysis and parameter uncertainty analysis during the process of fire PSA are introduced. A quantitative calculation of fire scenario frequency is conducted,with a cabinet fire in a room in Fuqing nuclear power plant taken as an example. It shows that the results are more accurate when the parameter uncertainty propagation of heat release rate is considered.