我国反补贴政策实施的潜在需求及其产业救济效果评估实证研究

Research on the Potential Demand and Industrial Remedy Effects Evaluation of Implementing Countervailing Policy in China

政策冲突已成为当前贸易摩擦的重要表现形式。目前,我国面临着全球反补贴调查头号对象国与缺乏反补贴实践经验的双重局面。在全球贸易战略、方式发生重大变化和贸易保护长期存在的形势下,我国反补贴工作面临着潜在的重大政策需求。随着反补贴案件的增多及其影响效应的扩大,反补贴政策产业救济效果越来越受到关注。反补贴政策产业救济效果的评估是一个动态复杂的系统性工作,本研究正是以此为切入点,基于计量经济学模型,在考虑剔除上下游产业与替代品等影响因素下,试图研究反补贴政策产业救济的纯效果,进而评估商务部门反补贴政策实施的有效性,以期引起更多相关专家、学者的共鸣,为我国反补贴调查机关提供参考和借鉴。

Nowadays policy conflict has become the important manifestation of trade friction. China is facing a dilemma that is countervailing double situation at home and abroad including the main target of foreign countries implementing countervailing policy against China and lack of practical experience of countervailing investigation. Under the new situa- tion that the global trade strategy and ways have a major change and the trade protection will exist for a long time, the Chinese government faces a major potential countervailing policy decision demand. With the increase of countervailing cases and the expansion of policy effects, the industrial remedy effects of implementing countervailing policy, which is a complex and dynamic system mission, is getting more and more attention. Based on the above background, this paper puts it as the starting point and uses a simultaneous equation model to try to pursue the pure effect of industrial remedy effects of countervailing policy while taking the removal of the upstream and downstream industry, substitute, and other factors into consideration. This study aims to contribute to evaluate the effectiveness of the Ministry of Commerce＇ s policy implementation, in order to attract more experts and scholars＇ resonance, and provide the reference for counter- vailing investigation organs in China.