公共政策满意度与中央政府信任--基于中国16个城市的实证分析

Public Policy Satisfaction and Trust in Central Government——An Empirical Analysis of 16 Cities in China

政府信任是政治合法性的重要基础，提升民众的政府信任已成为各国政府工作中非常关键的公共课题。本文基于2013—2014年中国16个城市的调查数据，对民众的公共政策满意度状况、人群分布特征及其对中央政府信任的影响进行了理论分析和实证检验。研究发现，新一届中央政府执政以来，民众在反腐倡廉、食品安全、住房保障等政策上的满意度明显提升，而在国家安全、工作机会、政府回应等方面的满意度则有所降低。虽然公共政策满意度对民众的中央政府信任有显著的正向影响，但是已有研究由于忽略了模型的内生性问题，一定程度上高估了这种影响。此外，公共政策满意度的提高能有效引导民众通过制度性渠道维权，降低群体性事件的发生概率。

Government trust is the important foundation of political legitimacy, and enhancing people＇ s trust in govern ment has become critical public issues in governmental work. Based on a survey data of 16 cities in China in the year of 2013 and 2014, the paper conducts a theoretical analysis and an empirical test on the status quo of people＇s satisfaction of public policy, distribution characteristics among groups and the effects of public policy satisfaction on the central government trust. The results show that, ever since the new central government has come to power, people~ satisfaction of public policy has risen significantly in the aspects of anticorruption, food safety and housing security, while decreasing in the aspects of national security, job opportunity and govern- ment response. Although the satisfaction of public policy has a significantly positive impact on people＇s trust in the central government, previous studies overestimated this effect due to the ignorance of endogeneity of the model. In addition, the improvement of public policy satisfaction can effectively guide rights safeguarding through institutional channels, and reduce the probability of the occurrence of mass incidents.