亚太地区炼油工业与油品贸易新格局

New pattern of refining industry and refined oil trade in Asian-Pacific region

亚太地区炼油能力在2015年出现近30年来的首次下降。未来10年亚太地区的蒸馏能力仍会增长但幅度大为缩小。亚太地区炼油富余能力的减少已成定势,可能在2018年转变为炼油能力短缺。与此同时,本区深加工能力则持续提升,油品贸易活跃。预计2023年亚太地区汽油供需平衡将发生转变,LPG供应将会出现更大的短缺。虽然亚太地区中间馏分油的出口预计会在2023年逐步降低,但石脑油的供需仍将保持平衡。中东地区2015年的净炼油能力增长达到新高,今后还会继续增加。由于亚太地区炼油能力增速的下降抵消了中东的增量,整个苏伊士以东地区可能在2020年从石油产品净出口地区变为净进口地区。

2015 saw the first decline of refining capacity in the Asia-Pacific region over nearly 30 years. The crude distillation capability will still be expanding but at a lower growth rate in the next 10 years. Decrease in refining overcapacity in Asia-Pacific region is an inevitable outcome and will probably be short of capacity in 2018. Meanwhile, the intensive processing capability in the region will continue to rise and the trade of petroleum products will be more active. It is expected that the balance of gasoline in the Asia-Pacific region may reverse with more deficient for LPG by 2023. While exports of the middle distillates may go down by 2023 and the demand and supply naphtha will keep balanced. In 2015, the incremental refining capacity of the Middle East reached a new high and the net additions will continue to increase in the future. The entire East of Suez is expected to be a net importer from a net exporter by 2020 since the increment in the Middle East is offset by the falling of rate of increase in Asia-Pacific region.