基于改进SIR epiDEM模型的社会网络营销有效性及仿真

Improved SIR epiDEM model of social network marketing effectiveness and experimental simulation

在信息传播动力学及传统SIR epiDEM模型的基础上,结合社会网络营销的特点构建改进的SIR epiDEM信息传播模型.将消费者自身特性、消费者之间关系、市场的划分、消费者不同市场间的移动以及竞争者的影响等五个要素融入到构建的模型当中.通过Netlogo软件先后进行了包括44个子实验的四组仿真试验,研究市场规模、感染率、直接免疫率、恢复率、信息的存活时间、自我隔离发生率及竞争者数量7个因素的变化对社会网络营销有效性的影响.实验结果显示:市场规模、感染率、信息的存活时间的增加在一定条件下能够提高社会网络营销的有效性,而直接免疫率、恢复率、自我隔离率、竞争者在一定条件下对社会网络营销的有效性具有削弱作用,尤其是恢复率和竞争者的数量削弱作用更为明显.最后,结合试验结果从市场规模、营销强度、消费者特征、竞争者及其影响等四个方面归纳出提高社会网络营销有效性的策略.

This paper constructs an improved SIR epiDEM model based on transmission dynamics of information, traditional SIR epiDEM model and characters of social networks marketing. Taking customer characters, relationships among customers, market segmentations, customers＇ movements among different markets and competitors＇ influence into consideration and constructing the improved SIR epiDEM model. And then, studying the impacts of market size, infected chance, inoculated chance, recovery chance, lifetime of information, self-isolated chance, and the number of competitors on social network marketing effective- ness by doing 4 groups experiments which consist of 44 sub-experiments and all of the experiments have been carried out by software Netlogo. The experimental simulation results show that market size, infected chance, and lifetime of information can improve the marketing effectiveness under the experimental condi- tions. Otherwise, inoculated chance, recovery chance, self-isolated chance, and the number of competitors decrease the marketing effectiveness; especially the recovery chance and the number of competitors have more significant impact on marketing effectiveness. At last, concluding four strategies for improving social network marketing effectiveness based on the experimental simulation results.