基于调查的中国秸秆露天焚烧污染物排放清单

Emissions Inventory of Atmospheric Pollutants from Open Burning of Crop Residues in China based on a National Questionnaire

基于2010年初农村能源消费情况的问卷调查，获得全国分省秸秆露天焚烧比例，在此基础上确定秸秆露天焚烧的活动水平，采用排放因子法建立中国秸秆露天焚烧的污染物排放清单．结果表明，中国农村秸秆露天焚烧平均比例为20．8％．2009年全国28个省区（不包括西藏自治区、天津市、上海市、港澳台地区，下同）秸秆露天焚烧的PM2.5，、BC、OC、SO2、NO2、CO、NMVOC、NH，、CH。和CO，jj}放量分另0138．1×10^4、6．4×10^4、41．1×10^4、8．7×10^4、41．8×10^4、594．6X10^4、94．4×10^4、8．0x10^4、44．2×10^4和14355．4X10^4．稻谷、玉米和小麦是露天焚烧的三大作物秸秆，其对污染物排放的贡献合计约为87％．秸秆露天焚烧排放量最高的前3位分别为湖南省、河南省和安徽省，秸秆露天焚烧比例分别43．1％、20．8％和39．7％．污染排放的高值区主要集中在华北和华中地区．95％置信区间下的不确定性分析结果显示，PM2.5，、BC、OC、SO2、NO2、CO和NMVOC排放的不确定性范围分另别为-60％．83％、-78％～147％、-73％～135％、-48％-75％、-49％-78％、-91％～155％和-67％～94％．2015年初对六省（湖南省、广东省、江苏省、河南省、黑龙江省和辽宁省）农村能源消费调查的结果显示，2014年江苏省、湖南省和广东省的秸秆露天焚烧比例较2009年均有下降，而辽宁省、黑龙江省和河南省则相对上升．研究显示，秸秆禁烧政策已取得初步成效，建议国家有关部门进一步加大秸秆禁烧政策的推行力度，完善相关政策措施．

In order to develop an improved emissions inventory of atmospheric pollutants from open burning of crop residues in China, we obtained provincial percentages of crop residue open burning through a questionnaire on national rural residential household fuel consumption in 2010. The emissions inventory was developed by using emission factors with the activity level calculated by survey data, and the spatial distribution of pollutant emissions was also analyzed. The average proportion of crop residue open burning in China based on the survey was about 20.8%. The results showed that total emissions of PM2.5 , BC, OC, SO2 , NO, CO, NMVOC, NH3 , CH4 and CO2 from crop residue open burning in China （except for Tibet, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan） in the year 2009 were 138.1 x 10^4 , 6.4 x 10^4, 41. 1 x 10^4, 8.7 x 10^4 , 41.8 x 10^4 , 594. 6 x 10^4 , 94.4 x 10^4, 8.0 x 10^4, 44.2 x 10^4 and 14,355.4 x 10^4 t, with total contribution about 87%. Thethree provinces with the highest fine particle emissions were Hunan, Henan and Anhui. The North and Central China represented the areaswith high emissions. The temporal distribution showed that crop residue open burning happened most frequently in June, October and November in the north of China compared to May to June and August to October in the south of China. Uncertainty analysis indicated that average 95% confidence interval （CIs） for PM2.5, BC, OC, SO2, NO, CO and NMVOC emissions were estimated to be - 60%-83%, - 78%-147%, -73%-135%, - 48%- 75% , 49%-78% , 91%-155% and 67%-94% ,respectively, which isa decrease compared to previous studies. In addition, we estimated the effects of crop burning policies on air pollutants through asecond questionnaire for I-Iunan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Henan, Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces in 2015. The trends of proportion of crop residue open burning between 2009 and 2014 based on the survey were in good agreement with the trends of fire spot from MODIS products of Terra satellite, illustrating that implementation of prohibition of straw burning has a certain achievement. However, the government still needs to implement prohibition of crop residue open burning.