煤层气开发风险评价模型及实证研究

Risk evaluation model and empirical research for CBM development

煤层气开发项目的高风险制约着我国煤层气产业的发展,为此,通过对煤层气开发风险因素的分析,构建由7个一级指标和36个二级指标构成的风险评价体系。提出基于期望值的三角模糊数互补判断矩阵的方法,对煤层气开发风险关键因素进行数量上的表述,估计其权重的相对大小,并确定各风险因素的隶属度,建立煤层气开发风险综合评价模型。最后,以沁水盆地柿庄南区块煤层气井为例验证模型的可行性和可靠性。结果表明,影响煤层气开发的关键因素风险由高到底依次为:地质资源、工程技术、经济运营、政策法规、安全保障、组织管理和社会环境;煤储层的非均质性及开发地质条件的不确定性是造成地质资源风险偏高的主要原因,但此类风险无法直接控制,建议通过提高排采技术来尽量减弱其造成的风险。

The high risk of CBM development project restricts the development of CBM industry in China. Therefore,based on the analysis of main risk factor for the CBM development, we established the index system for CBM development risk evaluation. The index system consists of 7 level indicators and 36 secondary indicators. Considering to the disadvantages of determining factor weight by traditional analytic hierarchy process, the method of determining risk factors weight based on triangular fuzzy numbers is proposed by fuzzy mathematics. The memberships of qualitative and quantitative risk factors are determined. The risk evaluation model for CBM development project is established. A ease study using the CBM well data observed from Qinshui basin verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that the value for the risk factors of CBM project ranked in descending order： geological resource; technical; economic;political and legal;security;organizational and managerial;social environment. The main reason of the high risk of geological resources is caused by the heterogeneity of coal reservoir and the uncertainty of geological conditions,but such risks can not directly control, it is recommended by improving the drainage technology to try to reduce the risk caused by the geological resources.