风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述

A review of research on vulnerability to storm surges

脆弱性是自然灾害风险研究的热点,风暴潮灾害脆弱性与风暴潮自然过程强度以及沿海社会经济、人口、自然环境等因素相关。本文从风暴潮灾害脆弱性定义出发,对国内外风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性和物理脆弱性进行了回顾,重点对人口、海堤、房屋等风暴潮灾害典型承灾体物理脆弱性研究进展进行了论述,分析了风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中存在的不确定性,探讨了风暴潮灾害脆弱性在灾害损失评估、保险及再保险、防灾减灾决策支持等领域的应用,对未来风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究提出了以下展望:(1)开发符合中国沿海区域风暴潮灾害特征和承灾体分布的定量化、精细化脆弱性曲线,拓展风暴潮脆弱性评价结果在保险理赔、灾害损失评估等领域应用;(2)气候变化背景下中国沿海面临风暴潮巨灾风险,迫切需要建立科学的基于灾害实地踏勘以及物模实验、数值模拟相结合的风暴潮灾害典型承灾体脆弱性评估方法模型。

Vulnerability is a hot topic in natural disaster risk research. Vulnerability to storm surges not only depends on the distribution of population and socioeconomic values, but also the frequency and intensity of storm surges, as well as the coastal environment. This article systematically reviewed the progress of research on social vulnerability and physical vulnerability to storm surges, focusing mainly on the physical vulnerability of population, coastal defenses, and buildings. Uncertainties in vulnerability assessment were analyzed, and the application of storm surge vulnerability assessment in the field of rapid loss assessment, insurance, reinsurance, and disaster mitigation and adaptation were discussed. Finally, future avenues of storm surge vulnerability research were presented： （1） Quantitative storm surge vulnerability curves of typical exposure units need to be developed for application in the field of disaster insurance claims and loss assessment; （2） Standardized vulnerability assessment method of storm surge for typical exposure units needs to be established through field survey, physical experiments, and numerical simulation in response to the potential increase of catastrophe risk in the coastal area of China under global climate change.