财政风险指数与财政效率研究--基于跨国面板数据的实证分析

Fiscal Risk Index and Fiscal Efficiency:A Cross-country Panel Analysis

在市场失灵、价格无法正确反映并调整资源分配的情况下,政府由于其职能的特殊性,往往主动分担各类社会经济风险,优化社会福利,而部分财政风险就是伴随政府履行职能产生的。在政府履行相同的职能下,财政风险越小的政府,其财政管理越具效率。但是,财政风险的增加不一定代表财政效率的降低,在政府分担了其他社会风险后,整体社会福利可能反而会增加;同样,财政风险的减少不一定代表财政效率的提高,也有可能是因为政府没有承担其应尽的职能所致。笔者利用60个样本1980年至2010年的年度数据,计算了相应的财政风险指数;并运用随机边界模型,进行了财政管理的效率分析。结果表明,债务危机频传的欧猪六国(PIIGGS)位列19个欧洲样本国家的末位。

To maximize overall social welfare,a government may actively take on extra socio-economic risks to correct market failures,which increases its own fiscal risks. So under the condition that governments exercise similar functions,the less the fiscal risks is,the higher the government＇s fiscal efficiency. But an increase of fiscal risks does not necessarily imply the reduction of fiscal efficiency. The overall social welfare may be higher after governments share other socio-economic risks. Similarly a decrease of fiscal risks does not necessarily imply the improvement of fiscal efficiency since the government may not fully exercise its functions. This paper constructs a fiscal risk index for 60 developed and developing economies using annual data from 1980 to 2010. A stochastic frontier model is applied to measure fiscal management efficiency. The results show that ＂PIIGGS＂are the highest fiscal inefficient countries among European samples. Among other developed countries,Singapore is the countries with highest fiscal efficiency,while Japan is the least. Among developing American countries,El Salvador has the highest fiscal efficient score,while Costa Rica has the lowest. Among European and Asian developing countries,Russia has the highest efficiency in fiscal management,while Thailand is the last. China is just slightly better and ranks the last second country,indicating that Chinese government has a large space to improve its fiscal management efficiency.