过桥贷款与房地产价格——基于2006—2015年中国的经验证据

Bridge Loan and Real Estate Price Based on China's Evidence from 2006 to 2015

过桥贷款是一种由社会非银行中介机构提供的、用于解决企业或个人财务资金缺口的短期过渡性贷款,期限短、利率高、周转快是其最主要的特点。近年来我国过桥贷款发展迅速,房地产市场使用过桥贷款也比较普遍。那么过桥贷款与房地产价格之间存在怎样的关系,过桥贷款是否是推动房价上涨的重要因素?笔者从资金来源角度对过桥贷款规模进行测算,揭示过桥贷款促使房价上涨的内在机制,以2006—2015年的月度数据为观测样本,建立VAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解观测过桥贷款与房地产价格之间的动态影响程度。结果发现:过桥贷款一定程度上会助推房价的上涨,这种作用在短期和长期都比较显著,而房价对过桥贷款的冲击效应不是十分显著;过桥贷款规模对房价变化的贡献率都远大于其他经济变量,并且贡献率随着时间的推移不断增加。为此,笔者认为,规范过桥贷款、降低房地产市场的杠杆率对于稳定房地产价格预期是必要的。

Bridge loan is a kind of short-term bridging loan provided by the social non-bank intermediary,which is used to solve the financing gap of the enterprises or individuals. Short duration,high interest rate and fast turnover are its main characteristics. In recent years,China＇s bridge loan has been developed rapidly. The usage of bridge loan in the real estate market is also common. Then what does the relationship exist between the bridge loan and real estate. Whether the bridge loan is an important factor in promoting the housing prices？ This paper estimates the scale of bridge loan from the perspective of capital source. Based on the monthly data from 2006 to 2015,we establish VAR model,use granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition to observe the dynamic impact of the bridge loan on real estate price. We discover the inherent mechanism of bridge loan to promote housing prices. The result shows that the bridge loan will boost the rise of housing price to a certain extent,and this effect is significant in both short-term and longterm,but the impact of housing price on the bridge loan is not very significant. The contribution of bridge loan on housing price is much greater than that of other economic variables,and the contribution rate increases with the time. Therefore,this article argues that to regulate the bridge loan and to reduce the leverage ratio of the real estate market is necessary for the stability of real estate price＇s expectation.