中国经济增长中“资源诅咒”的短期存在性识别研究

Research on the Existence of “Resource Curse” in China:Based on VAR and ECM Model

在对国内外"资源诅咒"存在性文献综述的基础上,采用自然资源占经济规模的比重这一指标来衡量我国资源依赖程度,并运用向量自回归模型(VAR)和误差修正模型(ECM)分别对我国资源依赖度与经济增长的关系进行了短期和长期的研究,从而对我国"资源诅咒"问题进行识别。根据模型结果看出,我国在短期内是存在"资源诅咒"现象的,但长期并不存在。同时结合脉冲响应的研究方法,对资源依赖度对经济增长的冲击进行分析,研究发现,我国长期并不存在"资源诅咒"源于经济具有较强的稳态机制,资源依赖度对经济的冲击会通过产业结构调整等渠道被逐步释放,且这一过程的时间相对是较为短暂的。

Is there ＂Resource Curse＂ in China？ This is a very important question which the pa- per tries to answer it. After literature review of ＂resource curse＂ existence, this paper uses ratio of resource in GDP to describe resource-dependence in China, and uses VAR and ECM model to re- search the relationship between resource-dependence and economic growth in both short term and long term. According to the results, China suffers ＂resource curse＂ in short term, but no in long term. At the meantime, this paper uses pulse response method to find out the reason why ＂resource curse＂ would not last long is that the pulse of resource-dependence will release in channels such as adjusting industry structure, and time of the process is comparatively short.