侦查情报分析中的认知闭合需要及其偏差修正

Need for Cognitive Closure in the Analysis of Criminal Investigation Intelligence and Its Bias Correction

[目的/意义]情报分析中过高的认知闭合需要水平会产生多种认知偏差,导致情报分析人员匆忙而有失偏颇地处理信息材料,急于得出结论。对此展开研究有助于情报分析人员改善因该动机而导致的偏差,提升情报产品质量。[方法/过程]通过对认知闭合需要的属性及其研究现状的考察,指出侦查情报分析中此类偏差的典型样态,如证实偏差、首因效应偏差、启发式思维偏差等,进而提出修正策略。[结果/结论]认为引入批判性思维工具、缓解和调试时间压力、让侦查人员承担相应的过错责任以及优化侦查情报分析与决策人员搭配组合等方法可有效削弱和降低此类偏差对情报分析的不良影响。

[ Purpose/Significance ] A high level of cognitive closure in the intelligence analysis can lead to a variety of cognitive biases, which may result in a situation of dealing with the information material in a hurry and being eager to draw a conclusion by the intelligence analysts. This study will help the intelligence analysts to correct the biases caused by this motivation and improve the quality of intelligence products. [ Method/Process] The study explores the cognitive closure properties, reviews the status quo of the related research, points out that this kind of bias in the criminal investigation intelligence analysis includes confirmation bias, primacy effects bias and heuristic think- ing bias, and then puts forward correction strategy. [ Result/Conclusion] Mastering critical thinking, easing debugging time pressure, taking responsibility for fault and optimizing the team arrangement of investigation intelligence analyst and decision support personnel are found to be effective in weakening and reducing the adverse effects of such biases on intelligence analysis.