基于扩展线性支出系统模型的失业保险金替代率测算研究

A Study on Calculating the Replacement Rate of Unemployment Insurance Benefit by Using the ELES Model

科学的失业保险金替代率是失业保险制度设计中的关键。目前中国大部分省市采用均一制方法确定的失业保险金给付标准过低,难以有效保障失业者的基本生活。采用薪资比例法,将失业保险金标准与失业前的工资相关联,还原失业保险金的收入替代功能是今后改革的方向。文章采用扩展线性支出系统模型测算出的维持失业者基本生活的失业保险金替代率为40%左右;考虑就业者负担人数和家庭规模经济效应时,失业保险金替代率为55.3%。失业保险金替代率测算结果为各地制定科学的失业保险金标准提供了参考。

Replacement rate of the unemployment insurance benefit is essential to the program. Currently the unemployment insurance benefit levelin most regions of China is set at a flat rate and is too low to meet basic needs of beneficiaries. This paper analyses the advisability to use the wageratio method and employs the ELES model to calculate the replacement rate of unemployment insurance benefit. The results are as follows ： （1）The basic replacement rate should be set around 40% to cover basic living expenditures of beneficiaries ; （ 2） When living expenditures ofdependents and economies of scale are taking into account, the replacement rate should be 55.3%. These replacement rates give reference forlocal governments to set scientific benefit level.